LES COCOS SOUTIENNENT L'IRAN -ET L'ISLAM !

Stopping an Attack on Iran is More Important to Russia Than Stopping a Nuclear Iran

Posted: 22 Jan 2012

Russia recently imparted a warning to the West, evidently having come to the conclusion that sanctions will “stifle” the Iranian economy.

In remarks at a news conference, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Western nations should instead return to focusing their efforts on reviving talks with Iran.

Lavrov also cautioned the West against launching a military strike, insisting it “would pour fuel on the hidden smoldering fire of Sunni-Shi’ite confrontation.”

In truth, the sectarian conflict has fueled friction between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and between Iran and Bahrain where Shi’ite populations have mounted uprisings against the Wahabi and Sunni regimes.

Lavrov continues his admonition by maintaining that Russia will “do everything” in its power to prevent a strike.

Later in the week, following talks in Israel with Defense Minister Ehud Barak, U.S. Chairman of the Joints Chiefs Gen. Martin Dempsey said Israel and Washington share a “common challenge.” Dempsey also stressed U.S. support for Israel in remarks addressed to Israel’s chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz.
“Your characterization of the common challenge we face and the sacred trust we have to protect those values of freedom — I couldn’t agree with you more,” Dempsey said. “And I assure you that America is your partner in that regard,” he went on to say.

Israeli press reports disclosed that the purpose of the visit was to focus on sanctions against Tehran. Netanyahu has said that the sanctions imposed thus far did not go far enough. DEBKAfile reports that the oil sanctions exist on paper only and that “there is no evidence that China, Japan, South Korea, India, Turkey and the European Union members, which purchase in total 85 percent of Iran’s total average export of 2.5 million barrels a day, have cancelled any part of their orders.” Also discussed was the possibility of a pre-emptive Israeli strike against the Iranian nuclear facilities. “The main disagreement pertains to the possibility of a strike on the Iranian nuclear sites,” Israel’s Maariv daily said.

“While an increasing number of voices can be heard in Israel supporting such a move, U.S. officials are trying to calm the atmosphere, and fear that Israel could act without informing them or only provide a warning shortly in advance.”

As it is, the allies have agreed to postpone the large-scale war games which were planned for May, reportedly due to the risk of aggravating the situation with Iran. At the same time, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi has said that Iran will be engaged in international talks regarding its nuclear activities. The summit is expected to be held in Istanbul, Turkey, according to the BBC.

But, is the Obama administration preparing militarily for potential conflict with Iran? HotAir believes that the administration is not and writes that its strategy consists primarily of defensive actions.

U.S. military involvement in the Gulf is playing an unobtrusive, relatively insignificant role. Apparently more messaging about force than actual force has been taking place, in the past few weeks, according to HotAir.

To begin with, some troops exiting Iraq were dispatched to Kuwait in order to deal with any contingencies. These troops, however, are insufficient to mount any sort of advance. The U.S. does have two carriers (USS John C Stennis and USS Carl Vinson) stationed outside the Persian Gulf, but one is scheduled to head West soon. Additionally, the USS Abraham Lincoln is expected to arrive in the theater, heading in from its last port visit in Thailand. DEBKAfile reports that US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said that the USS Enterprise Carrier Strike Group is heading for the Persian Gulf and will make its way through the Strait of Hormuz in March, as a direct message to Tehran that the US will continue to deploy ships there.

Wired’s Danger Room has confirmed with the U.S. Special Operations Command that a new elite commando team is operating in the region. Danger Room reports:

“The primary, day-to-day mission of the team, known as Joint Special Operations Task Force-Gulf Cooperation Council, is to mentor military units belonging to the U.S.’ oil-rich Arab allies, who collectively are known as the Gulf Cooperation Council. Those Arab states consider Iran to be their primary foreign threat.

The task force provides “highly trained personnel that excel in uncertain environments,” Maj. Rob Bockholt, a spokesman for special-operations forces in the Mideast, tells Danger Room, and “seeks to confront irregular threats.” The U.S. military has not previously acknowledged the existence of the team, known as JSOTF-GCC for short.”

There is no direct evidence that JSOTF-GCC has been involved in offensive action against Iran and scant details are available regarding this task force. It revolves around Naval Special Warfare Unit Three which is one of the elite Navy SEAL teams. Officials refrained from identifying the task force’s mission or its leadership and headquarters.

On the other hand, the large-scale U.S. / Israel exercises, scheduled for April-May have been cancelled, ostensibly due to budgetary reasons. Additionally, the U.S. is supplying Gulf nations with air- and missile-defense systems but they are no deterrent against Iran launching any sort of attack. HotAir points out that the Obama administration strategy is purely passive, not preemptive and merely a series of defensive actions.

The Russians have an aircraft carrier task force deployed in the area while France and Britain are planning a joint deployment of a substantial naval force.

Obama has called for direct talks with Iran in a not-so-secret anymore letter to the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader which also warned Tehran against closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz, conservative Iranian lawmaker, Ali Motahari, was quoted as saying on Wednesday. Fars news agency quoted Motahari as saying that “the letter also said that closing the Strait of Hormuz is (Washington’s) red line.”

Tommy Vietor, National Security Council spokesman has responded to the news reports of secrecy, by saying “We have consistently communicated our views and concerns on those issues to the Iranians and to the international community broadly. We have a number of ways to communicate our views to the Iranian government, and we have used those mechanisms regularly on a range of issues over the years. I’m not going to get into the details of those communications or mechanisms. But any message that we have delivered to the Iranian government would be the same as what we’ve said publicly.”

“Of course, we also have a broader set of issues that we have communicated to the Iranian government. Since taking office, the President has made it clear that he is willing to engage constructively and seriously with Iran about its nuclear program, while also making it clear that Iran must live up to its international obligations. We remain committed to a diplomatic solution to this issue if Iran is willing to move in a different direction,” he said.

Former US ambassador to the United Nations, Johan Bolton, sees things differently. Bolton castigated Obama’s foreign policy regarding Iran in an op-ed in USA Today. “A nuclear armed Iran will be his most lasting legacy.” Bolton wrote. “Sanctions have long been touted as the answer, but they are not,” Bolton explained. “Sadly, we have been behind the curve for years, and recent Obama administration claims about slowing Tehran down are little more than re-election propaganda.”

Bolton also indicated that Iran’s alliances with China, Cuba, Russia, Venezuela and others are sufficient to undermine sanctions. Calling Obama’s stance naïve, Bolton said that Tehran does not “buy our theories of deterrence.” The former ambassador finished by saying, “The most likely outcome is stark: The world’s central banker of terrorism will very soon become a nuclear weapons state. The only other option is to take pre-emptive military action to break Iran’s program, and the odds of doing so successfully are deteriorating daily, as it hardens and deeply buries new facilities.

Indeed, faced with a weak, ineffective Obama, Iran’s smartest strategy is to accelerate its work, finishing the job before his potential defeat this November.

Obama’s irresolution and inaction could well make a nuclear Iran his most lasting legacy.”

(worldthreats.com)

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